Archive | July 2016

Markets and Population

Many developed countries are struggling with the economic instability associated with saturated markets. The common denominator is often supply and demand. For many, the issue is lack of growth of domestic patronage. This is a probable ceiling for every GDP.

Much of the issues based upon current political memes concerning immigration and acceptance of refugees are rooted in the saturation of the markets in the countries in which they exist. A developed world melting pot of sorts seems to be the political solution to the lack of growth in the markets.

The healthcare market in the US was patched by mandating insurance for those who often need it the least. This is the strategy of the famed “Obamacare”; which was originally referred to as the ACA (Affordable Care Act). An industry needed more patrons; so the government forced it with legislation. This was of course temporary as the ceiling, though raised was still finite. Legislation for the promotion of illegal immigration is a hot topic in the US as of late. This is probably because illegal aliens are seen as at least potential consumers. Making citizenship more easily attained however is not part of the agenda. This is by all accounts pernicious. By giving illegal immigrants limited rights, the markets might be floated for an extended amount of time without the obligation to new citizens in the event of financial crisis. It has the appearance of a ponzi scheme where a class that falls in between second class citizenry and illegal alien is led on without any of the inalienable rights given to naturalized citizens. This appears to parallel the conditions that the influx of refugees falls under as well.

The issues in Europe are similar. In Germany for instance, the refugees don’t seem to be enticed toward the benefit of citizenship either. This is a problem for many reasons. The most important is probably the fact that these people are not migrants of their own volition. Though the hype of the issues with this are a bit over inflated, the issue still remains. Naturalization is not the primary intent; and possible financial boons will be taken advantage of.

In Japan the push for population increase is falling upon the Japanese women. They are being coerced in more and more despicable ways to have children. This is a huge issue for those who wish to devote their lives to their careers. In trying to preserve their culture they are adding a blight to it with this issue.

The most concerning issue with this wide spread problem is the political “solutions” to it. In third world countries, population control methods are being implemented. One of the most promising that has been demonstrated in several cases is the promotion of higher education in girls and young women. Where the youth have educational resources and encouragement, few females want more than one child if any. Careers become more of a focus. In the developed world, especially in the US, spending and promotion of educational resources have fallen off. This is also the case with funding for science. It’s been pointed out that population control is reserved for the third world to make way for population increase in the developed world. This developed world melding pot is sold as one thing and used as another.

My intuition is that policies would rapidly change in the throws of financial hardship. This is unacceptable. Immigrants and refugees should be enticed toward citizenship. Any other policy is ethically devoid. We can no longer refer to the west as the “Free World” under these conditions. The term developed world is losing meaning by the day.

Towards Naturalized Socioeconomics

An Approach to a Scientific Economic System

An Open Project Proposal

By: Tory Wright

Abstract:

 Socioeconomic systems though complex and chaotic, are very measurable and probably somewhat predictable; with the benefit of the many scientific disciplines. Though much measurement and prediction is occurring under the current neo-capitalistic paradigm, an approach based on General Systems Theory would be more likely to produce the desired outcomes and coordinate human society with external systems. This would also be more likely to assist in mitigating extinction and existential risk.

Synopsis:

 Mathematical Model:

 The Model is based on a common tuple. <T ,U ,Y ,Q ,Ω, δ ,λ,>  The tuple denotes two subsystems. The Western characters on the left represent the Particular function of the socioeconomic system. This is the distributed manufacturing and distribution system that today’s business models compose. It states that over a period of time ( T ), an input to the system ( U ) produces an output ( Y ); resulting in a particular state ( Q ). The Greek characters on the right represent the Archetype function of the system. This is the administrative function of the system. This would replace the ancient political structuring with a multi-disciplinary study. It states that an admissible input to the system ( Ω ) brings about a transition ( δ ); that results in an observed output ( λ ). The model would be based upon observed outcomes.

Archetype:

 The Archetype is a theoretical and experimental resource that aims to produce generalized axioms for creating project models. The merit of the archetypal axioms would be based upon the observed outcomes in the Particular.

Particular:

The Particular is an applied and experimental resource acquisition and distribution subsystem. It would use the axioms produced by the Archetype to create individual project models. It would also be a field testing ground for the axioms produced by the Archetype.

Synergistic Function:

 The Archetype and Particular are modeled after the theoretical, experimental and applied domains of the scientific community. The difference however, is there would not necessarily be a peer review process. The axioms would be based upon the observed outcomes in the field. This is the essence of the interaction between the Archetype and Particular. The socioeconomic system itself would be a complex, self-organizing system. It would be the product of it’s initial conditions as opposed to being a product of artifices. The Archetype produces the axioms for the creation of individual project models; and the Particular tests the efficacy of the axioms through experimentation in the field.

Naturalization:

 The approach is based upon the functions of physical and biological systems. It would self-organize by responding to the general environmental conditions in a naturalized manner. This would be accomplished by computer mediation. Data driven, multi-disciplinary analysis, inferential statistics and observed outcomes might balance human influence with the overarching systems. Naturalization is most probable when following the most accurate approximations of natural axioms.

Practical Efficacy:

 Since the system would be based upon the observed outcomes, practicality might be intrinsic to the system. The system is poised to produce desired outcomes as the observed outcomes are the metric by which the efficacy of the axioms are to be measured.

Political:

 It’s difficult to produce a political description of a system that is apolitical. The most accurate description may be a balance between Instrumentalism and Proceduralism. The Archetype is somewhat Instrumentalistic and Epistecratic however it is influenced by the Particular which is Proceduralistic. Since the Archetype is charged with producing the axioms, it fits within the description of Instrumentalistic. Since it would likely be those with higher education that would be analyzing the system, it would fit the description of Epistecratic. The Archetype wouldn’t however have control of decisions. The Particular would allow participation in the process; thus it would fit the description of Proceduralistic. It would be the outcomes in practice that would be the metric for decision making.

Risk Management:

 Risk management might be based on the theoretical principle that Entropy through Normalization begets Novelty; that over time might become that which is Long Normal. Efforts to remove Entropy from the system through analysis by multi-disciplinary inferential statistics would be likely to minimize unfavorable consequences. Coordination with the local, environmental, extra-terrestrial, behavioral, biological and physical systems would be likely to produce less Entropy, and thus the desired outcomes; as unexpected outcomes would likely be minimized. Consideration of externalities in the formation of individual projects would likely be intrinsic to the system.

 It is said that, “The universe is in the business of Entropy”. That is the observation. Entropy is by far the most common emergence. Extinction is thus the most common outcome. This however requires some qualification. When considering archaeological and geological time spans as opposed to historical time spans, extinction is the sole outcome. This would suggest that concerns over extinction risk are more immediate goals. It might be better to categorize as abrupt extinction risk. It would stand to reason that more long term goals would be subject to a more advanced theoretical understanding than our current one when the relevant conditions are upon us. The best approach toward long term goals might thus be to advance our theoretical understanding. This too however requires some qualification. The advancement of our understanding has brought about an awareness of new risks that we hadn’t previously considered. Extraterrestrial risk factors such as asteroid strikes were not likely to be addressed as little as 50 years ago.

 Crises are another risk factor that are recurring at an accelerated rate. This may suggest that our current economic paradigm is entropic. It would stand to reason that some degree of normalization is in order. In the event that a pure systems theoretical paradigm is not the outcome, a socioeconomic theory with such a basis could prove useful just the same; for the purpose of risk management alone.

 That which is to survive and become novel and eventually long normal, is subject to normalization. This probably entails coordination with a critical mass of existing systems. The focus on normalization is likely the most effective axiom for risk management by our current theoretical understanding.

Closing:

 We have suffered the consequences of an ancient, Coercion based socioeconomic system for upwards of 10,000 years. Our understanding of natural systems has long since advanced beyond the point to support it’s incoherence. We however struggle with economics as it has become a heuristic. Economics is one of the strongest environmental pressures and thus likely one of the most difficult to reform. It would stand to reason that only strong environmental pressures would be likely to produce reform as a response.

 Given that our socioeconomic paradigm is indeed sufficiently entropic, General Systems Theory might suggest that many of the issues that we face are consequences of our inputs to the overarching systems. It would be in our best interest to do the analysis and the math to determine more empirically if this is the case. This is not something that is currently being done by Economists despite it’s appeal to reason. This leaves us arguing widely from a state of ignorance. We will not have to wonder so anxiously about whether or not we will have a future if we do the work to provide one for us.

(Free PDFs)

The Argument: https://gfxgarage.wordpress.com/2015/08/

https://www.dropbox.com/s/johjdfrizkv6ug9/nateco.pdf?dl=0

The Model:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m8bulnsxusdk5z2/tns.pdf?dl=0